Forecasting update

In February, I recapped my track record as a forecaster, going back to 2015. I’m a bit more than halfway through my first season as a “Pro” on the INFER forecasting platform so I thought I’d post an update.

  • 64 questions have resolved. I’ve forecast on 7 of them.
  • Of users who’ve forecast on at least five resolved questions this season (the platform’s default leaderboard cutoff) I’m ranked 66 out of 280 (76th percentile). My percentile is basically the same if you include anyone who’s forecast on at least one resolved question.
  • For the all-time leaderboard, among anyone with five resolved questions since 2020, I’m currently 73 out of 558, (87th percentile).
  • My best performance year to date was on a forecast of venture capital. My worst on Intel’s Q2 revenue.

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