On falsification

From Richard McElreath’s textbook Statistical Rethinking, via Data Elixir: …The above is a kind of folk Popperism, an informal philosophy of science common among scientists but not among philosophers of science. Science is not describe by the falsification standard, and Popper recognized that. In fact, deductive falsification is impossible in nearly every scientific context. In …

Notes on trade and globalization

I’ve been trying to revisit the arguments and evidence for global trade and trade liberalization recently. I want to post a few links so I don’t lose track of them. Overall, I came away suspecting that the pro-trade side, which I’ve been sympathetic toward, is a bit overconfident relative to the evidence. But also that …

AI governance is governance

ChatGPT has kickstarted a bunch of discussion of how AI/ML will change the world. No argument there. But reading some of it, I’m reminded of something that has bugged me in some of the discussions of AI “safety”. Take this bit, from Sam Hammond, via Marginal Revolution: ordinary people will have more capabilities than a …

Editing as humility

A colleague of mine once called editing “a helping profession.” It’s a nice idea that speaks to how different the craft of editing actually is from how people imagine it. There’s a stereotype of the dictatorial editor, assigning stories they want, rejecting others, and creating a whole publication in their image. Maybe somewhere that exists …

What causes recessions?

A few different resources explaining the various causes of recessions… In 2019 I wrote a feature about firms and recessions, and I summed up the causes of recession this way: Recessions… can be caused by economic shocks (such as a spike in oil prices), financial panics (like the one that preceded the Great Recession), rapid …