Crowds and replicability, again

More evidence that prediction markets can anticipate which studies will replicate. My previous posts on this idea are here and here.

H/t to the Vox Future Perfect newsletter, which discussed what this implies for journalism. I have thoughts. Short-version: the interpretive turn in journalism applies to research coverage, too. You don’t just report the findings; you interpret them. Recall that The New York Times said it “should continue to employ a healthy mix of newshounds, wordsmiths and analysts.” Emphasis mine. Under the right conditions, it’s reasonable to think that the best analytical journalists will outperform at least the average academic for reasons explained in this post and this one.

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